"Prospects for Democratic Consolidation in Africa: Nigeria’s Transition" - By General Muhammadu Buhari, Chatham House, London, on 26 February 2015.
Permit me to start by thanking Chatham House for the invitation to talk about this important topic at this crucial time.
The 2015 general election in Nigeria is generating a lot of interests within
and outside the country.
This is understandable.
Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country and largest economy, is at a
defining moment, a moment that has great implications beyond the
democratic project and beyond the borders of my dear country.
So let me say upfront that the global interest in Nigeria’s landmark
election is not misplaced at all and indeed should be commended, for this is an election that has serious import for the world. I urge the
international community to continue to focus on Nigeria at this very critical moment. Given increasing global linkages, it is in our collective interests that the postponed elections should hold on the
rescheduled dates, that they should be free and fair, that their outcomes
should be respected by all parties, and that any form of extension, under whichever guise, is
unconstitutional and would not be tolerated.
With the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, the dissolution of the USSR
in 1991, the collapse of communism and the end of the Cold War, democracy became the dominant and most preferred system of
government across the globe. That global transition has been aptly
captured as the triumph of democracy and the ‘most pre-eminent political idea of our
time.’ On a personal note, the phased end of the USSR was a turning point for me. If you will,
that was my own road to Damascus experience. It convinced me that
change can be brought about without firing a single shot.
As you all know, I had been a military head of state in Nigeria for twenty months. We intervened
because we were unhappy with the state of affairs in our country.
We wanted to arrest the drift. Driven by patriotism, influenced by
the prevalence and popularity of such drastic measures all over Africa and elsewhere, we fought
our way to power. But the global triumph of democracy has shown
that another, and a preferable, path to change is possible. It is an important lesson I have carried with me since, and a lesson that is not lost on the African continent.
In the last two decades, democracy has grown strong roots in Africa.
Elections, once so rare, are now so
commonplace. As at the time I was a military head of state between
1983 and 1985, only four African countries held regular multi-party
elections. But the number of electoral democracies in Africa,
according to Freedom House, jumped to 10 in 1992/1993 then to 18 in 1994/1995 and to 24 in
2005/2006.
According to the New York Times, 42 of the 48 countries in Sub-Sahara
Africa conducted multi- party elections between 1990 and 2002. The newspaper also reported that between 2000 and 2002, ruling parties in four African countries
(Senegal, Mauritius, Ghana and Mali)
peacefully handed over power to victorious opposition parties.
In addition, the proportion of African countries categorized as not free
by Freedom House declined from 59% in 1983 to 35% in 2003.
Without doubt, Africa has been part of the current global wave of democratization.
But the growth of democracy on the
continent has been uneven. According to Freedom House, the
number of electoral democracies in Africa slipped from 24 in 2007/2008 to 19 in 2011/2012; while the
percentage of countries categorized as ‘not free’ increased from 35% in
2003 to 41% in 2013.
Also, there have been some reversals at different times in
Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Cote D’Ivoire, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Mali,
Madagascar, Mauritania and Togo.
While we can choose to look at the glass of democracy in Africa as
either half full or half empty. While you can’t have representative
democracy without elections, it is equally important to look at the
quality of the elections and to remember that mere elections do not democracy make.
It is globally agreed that democracy is not an event, but a journey.
And that the destination of that journey is democratic consolidation
—that state where democracy has become so rooted and so routine
and widely accepted by all actors.
With this important destination in mind, it is clear that though many
African countries now hold regular elections, very few of them have
consolidated the practice of democracy.
It is important to also state at this point that just as with elections, a
consolidated democracy cannot be an end by itself.
I will argue that it is not enough to hold series of elections or even to peacefully alternate power among
parties.
It is much more important that the
promise of democracy goes beyond just allowing people to freely
choose their leaders. It is much more important that democracy should deliver on the promise of
choice, of freedoms, of security of lives and property, of transparency and accountability, of rule of law, of good governance and of shared
prosperity.
It is very important that the promise embedded in the concept of democracy, the promise of a better
life for the generality of the people, is not delivered in the breach.
Now, let me quickly turn to Nigeria. As you all know, Nigeria’s fourth
republic is in its 16th year and this general election will be the fifth
in a row. This is a major sign of progress for us, given that our first
republic lasted five years and three months, the second republic ended
after four years and two months and the third republic was a still-birth.
However, longevity is not the only reason why everyone is so interested in this election.
The major difference this time around is that for the very first time since transition to civil rule in
1999, the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is facing its stiffest
opposition so far from our party the All Progressives Congress (APC).
We once had about 50 political parties, but with no real competition. Now Nigeria is transiting from a dominant party system to a competitive electoral polity, which is
a major marker on the road to democratic consolidation.
As you know, peaceful alternation of power through competitive elections have happened in Ghana, Senegal,
Malawi and Mauritius in recent times.
The prospects of democratic consolidation in Africa will be further
brightened when that eventually happens in Nigeria.
But there are other reasons why Nigerians and the whole world are
intensely focused on this year’s elections, chief of which is that the
elections are holding in the shadow of huge security, economic and
social uncertainties in Africa’s most populous country and largest
economy.
On insecurity, there is a genuine cause for worry both within and outside Nigeria.
Apart from the civil war era, at no other time in our history has Nigeria been this insecure. Boko Haram
has sadly put Nigeria on the terrorism map, killing more than 13,000 of our nationals, displacing millions internally and externally, and at a time holding on to portions of our territory the size of Belgium.
What has been consistently lacking is the required leadership in our battle against insurgency.
I, as a retired general and a former head of state, have always known
about our soldiers: they are capable, well trained, patriotic, brave and
always ready to do their duty in the service of our country. You all can bear witness to the gallant role of our military in Burma, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Darfur and in many other peacekeeping operations in several parts of the
world.
But in the matter of this insurgency, our soldiers have neither received the necessary support nor the required incentives to tackle this
problem. The government has also
failed in any effort towards a multi-
dimensional response to this problem leading to a situation in which we have now become
dependent on our neighbours coming to our rescue.
Let me assure you that if I am elected president, the world will have no cause to worry about Nigeria as it has had to recently, that Nigeria will return to its stabilizing role in West Africa, and that no inch of Nigerian territory will ever be lost
to the enemy because we will pay special attention to the welfare of our soldiers in and out of service, we will give them adequate and modern arms and ammunitions to workwith, we will improve intelligence gathering to choke Boko Haram's
financial and equipment channels, we will be tough on terrorism and
tough on its root causes by initiating a comprehensive economic development plan promoting
infrastructural development, job
creation, agriculture and industry in the affected areas.
We will always act on time and not allow problems to irresponsibly fester, and I, General Muhammadu
Buhari, will always lead from the front and return Nigeria to its
leadership role in regional and
international efforts to combat terrorism.
On the economy, the fall in prices of oil has brought our economic and social stress into full relief. After the rebasing exercise in April 2014,
Nigeria overtook South Africa as Africa’s largest economy. Our GDP is now valued at $510 billion and our economy rated 26th in the world.
Also on the bright side, inflation has been kept at single digit for a while
and our economy has grown at an average of 7% for about a decade.
But it is more of paper growth, a growth that, on account of mismanagement, profligacy and
corruption, has not translated to human development or shared
prosperity.
A development economist once said three questions should be asked about a country’s development:
1. what is happening to poverty?
2. what is happening to. unemployment?
3. And what is happening to inequality?
The answers to these questions in Nigeria show that the current
administration has created two economies in one country, a sorry tale of two nations: one economy for a few who have so much in their
tiny island of prosperity; and the other economy for the many who have so little in their vast ocean of misery.
Even by official figures, 33.1% of
Nigerians live in extreme poverty. That’s at almost 60 million, almost the population of the United Kingdom. There is also the unemployment crisis simmering beneath the surface, ready to explode at the slightest stress, with officially 23.9% of our adult population and almost 60% of our youth unemployed. We also have one of the highest rates of inequalities in the world.
With all these, it is not surprising that our performance on most
governance and development indicators (like Mo Ibrahim Index
on African Governance and UNDP’s Human Development Index.) are
unflattering.
With fall in the prices of oil, which
accounts for more than 70% of government revenues, and lack of
savings from more than a decade of oil boom, the poor will be disproportionately impacted.
In the face of dwindling revenues, a good place to start the repositioning of Nigeria's economy is to swiftly tackle two ills that have ballooned under the present administration: waste and corruption.
And in doing this, I will, if elected, lead the way, with the force of
personal example. On corruption, there will be no confusion as to
where I stand.
Corruption will have no place and the corrupt will not be appointed
into my administration.
First and foremost, we will plug the holes in the budgetary process.
Revenue producing entities such as NNPC and Customs and Excise
will have one set of books only. Their revenues will be publicly
disclosed and regularly audited.
The institutions of state dedicated to fighting corruption will be given independence and prosecutorial
authority without political interference.
But I must emphasize that any war waged on corruption should not be
misconstrued as settling old scores or a witch-hunt.
I'm running for President to lead Nigeria to prosperity and not adversity.
In reforming the economy, we will use savings that arise from blocking these leakages and the proceeds
recovered from corruption to fund our party’s social investments programmes in education, health, and safety nets such as free school meals for children, emergency
public works for unemployed youth and pensions for the elderly.
As a progressive party, we must reform our political economy to
unleash the pent-up ingenuity and
productivity of the Nigerian people thus freeing them from the indignities of poverty.
We will run a private sector-led economy but maintain an active role
for government through strong regulatory oversight and deliberate
interventions and incentives to diversify the base of our economy,
strengthen productive sectors, improve the productive capacities of
our people and create jobs for our teeming youths. In short, we will
run a functional economy driven by a worldview that sees growth not as an end by itself, but as a tool to
create a society that works for all, rich and poor alike.
On March 28, Nigeria has a decision to make. To vote for the continuity of failure or to elect progressive
change. I believe the people will choose wisely.
In sum, I think that given its strategic importance, Nigeria can trigger a wave of democratic
consolidation in Africa.
But as a starting point we need to get this critical election right by
ensuring that they go ahead and depriving those who want to scuttle
it the benefit of derailing our fledgling democracy.
That way, we will all see democracy and democratic consolidation
as tools for solving pressing problems in a sustainable way, not as ends in themselves.
Permit me to close this discussion on a personal note. I have heard and
read references to me as a former dictator in many respected British
newspapers including the well regarded Economist.
Let me say without sounding
defensive that dictatorship goes with military rule, though some might be less dictatorial than others.
I take responsibility for whatever happened under my watch.
I cannot change the past.
But I can change the present and the future.
So before you is a former military ruler and a converted democrat who
is ready to operate under democratic norms and is subjecting himself to the rigours of democratic elections for the fourth time.
You may ask: why is he doing this? This is a question I ask myself all
the time too.
And here is my humble answer:
Because the work of making Nigeria great is not yet done, because I still believe that change is possible, this time through the ballot, and most importantly, because I still have the
capacity and the passion to dream and work for a Nigeria that will be
respected again in the comity of nations and that all Nigerians will be
proud of.
I thank you for listening.
#Buhari